A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."